Rising US air freight imports from Taiwan, Vietnam offset drop in China trade

Posted December 2025

A fundamental shift in trans-Pacific air freight trade flows since the US eliminated the de minimis exemption for low-value goods in May is becoming clearer, with a decline in China-US traffic replaced by booming imports from Taiwan and Vietnam. 

Data from consultants Trade and Transport Group shows the impact of the regulatory changes as de minimis traffic fell significantly while regular air cargo increased. 

“The decline in China to US traffic has been more than offset, particularly by air freight from Taiwan and Vietnam, and it is mainly linked to computers and parts, as well as industrial equipment,” Frederic Horst, managing director of Trade and Transport Group, told the JOC.  In the first nine months of the year, US imports of air cargo from China were down 10.1% year over year, Trade and Transport data shows. But imports from Northeast Asia as a whole rose 36.4%, while imports from Southeast Asian origins were up almost 50%. 

A deeper dive into the data shows US air cargo imports from Taiwan from January through September jumped almost 91% year over year, imports from Vietnam rose almost 80% and imports from Thailand were up more than 40%. Computers and accessories, industrial equipment and parts; audio, video and optical components; and mobile phones comprised the bulk of the air freight shipments. 

The trend has also been picked up by Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, which has urged shippers to factor the supply chain changes into their 2026 shipment plans. 

“Following changes to US de minimis rules, some direct China-US e-commerce flows have decreased, but more cargo is now routed via alternative hubs and forward-stocking models, making trade lanes more diversified,” Catherine Chien, chairwoman of Dimerco Express Group, said in a market update. “Demand for high-tech, AI-related and e-commerce shipments continues to drive growth in air freight from the Asia-Pacific region to North America and Europe,” Chien added. “Shippers that can flex between multiple lanes, multiple modes and multiple origin countries will be better positioned than those relying on a single country or mode.” 

US import data distorted by e-commerce 

The main driver of inbound air cargo from Asia to the US has been e-commerce, which, over the past few years, has created a growing gap in US air cargo data. But the removal in May of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports from China, followed by the removal of de minimis rules for all US trading partners in August, has led to a fundamental change in the mix of air cargo. 

“Regular air freight imports — i.e. consignments greater than $2,000 — are up 16.5% for the first nine months, while overall inbound air cargo traffic to the US is down 2.5%,” Horst said. 

Data from air cargo analyst Rotate shows freighter operators have shifted capacity in Asia to follow the moving export trend. Direct air freight capacity offered from Southeast Asia to North America from May 2 — when the de minimis tariff on China imports was eliminated — through November was up 89% at 102,700 metric tons. 

However, the analyst pointed out that much of Vietnam’s air freight trade is shipped indirectly through Asian hubs in mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan, so the actual volume from Southeast Asia to North America is higher. The Freightos Air Index shows China-US rates at a 2025 high exceeding $8/kg this week, higher than last year’s $7.30/kg peak, according to a market update from Freightos Tuesday.  The International Air Transport Association expects global air volume growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 despite the impact of the US tariffs on volume flows.